What are you staring at kid?
Good Trouble for the Week of 7.18.25
Reality has a well-known liberal bias - Stephen Colbert
This week:
Colbert’s cancellation and late night economics
Shifting attitudes on immigration…for the positive
and the dreaded Gen Z blank stare
Oh Colbert
Gosh, you can’t even cancel a 30+ year old show without pissing everyone off anymore.
The cancellation of the Late Show with Stephen Colbert has, naturally, spun off a lot of outrage and conspiracies.
On one side, there’s the economic argument. Network TV has been in a long decline, and tentpole programming is no longer a luxury they can afford if the advertiser revenue doesn’t cover it.
On the other side, there’s the censorship argument. Network parent companies, under threat by Trump and this administration, are caving to the pressure. Settling lawsuits prematurely, and forcing out the troublemakers. That Colbert, a vocal critic of Trump, was cancelled just days after he criticized CBS’s parent company Paramount for settling the 60 Minutes lawsuit (calling it a ‘Big Fat Bribe’) is all the proof one needs.
The fact is both things can be true at once.
When’s the last time you watched anything late - live?
The cultural power of any of these shows lies in the DAY AFTER. Clipped and sorted by the algorithm to appear in our YouTube (most likely) or Instagram feeds the next morning.
A vicious takedown or clever impersonation of a world leader may make for great viewing. But the realized value of that viewing isn’t going to the publisher - Paramount and CBS.
It’s going to the platforms. YouTube gets a large cut of it as networks host the clips on the channels and both take a cut of ad revenue off of it.
Hardly an even trade, and one that’s cutting into the bottom line:
As recently as 2018, broadcast networks took in an estimated $439 million in advertising revenue for its late-night programs, according to the advertising firm Guidelines. Last year, that number dwindled to $220 million. - AP
CBS reportedly lost $40 million on Colbert’s Late Show this year, with the Colbert himself getting paid $100MM reportedly.
Maybe the more telling coincidence is this:
For the first time ever, in May, more people watched streaming services than broadcast and cable combined. By June, that gap had widened even further, with broadcast falling below 20% of TV viewing for the first time ever.
To be fair, Late Night isn’t the only one feeling the pain. Scripted programming, also pricey to make, was noticeably absent in the networks’ upfronts this year (where they typically roll out new shows to entice advertiser to make upfront commitments).
Much of this cost saving is to help the networks preserve the live programming that still brings eyeballs, namely live sports.
And we know how the leagues treat outspoken troublemakers.
Maybe Colbert became more trouble than he and his show were literally worth.
But before we mourn the end of Late Night.
Late Night Was Never Going to Lead the Revolution
The median age of America is 38.5. The median age of someone watching network: 64.6.
Sandwiched between monologues about Trump and the next guest plugging a new movie are ads for incontinence, life insurance, and mobility aids to get you up and down the stairs.
Hardly the crowd that revolutions are built on.
Maybe the future for Colbert on TV will, ironically be on Youtube. Presently, more people are watching more hours of Youtube on their tv screens than over their phones, aided by app integration into most new TVs. Or some combination of audio + video on Youtube which has become a major hub for podcasts, with over 1B monthly viewers.
Regardless, independent media offers a lot of benefits for talent who’ve left parent companies. Tucker Carlson (ugh) is regularly in the top 10 podcasts on Youtube after leaving Fox News averaging about 1MM views per episode in June. That’s down from around 3MM he had on Fox News before he left, but the difference here is he maintains control. Free to say whatever batshit crazy stuff he likes while getting the ad revenue on top.
Maybe Colberts eventual next move will take him that route. Or he brings LIVE to a streamer like Netflix. Let’s watch and see.
It is increasingly every voter, every American for his- or herself. Not trusting the government or the Supreme Court and not organized in parties, people instead offer their trust elsewhere — including to the internet.
When institutions crumble, strongmen step in (Washington Post)
America’s Shifting View on Immigration
Suddenly the
I’d love to say this is evidence of ‘cooler heads prevailing’ with the post election-hype of the Immigration issue fading.
But we know that’s not the case. ICE overreach and the overmilitarization of US cities.
Along with chilling stories of law-abiding people being harshly detained and disappearing, it has made many of us confront our perception of our country vs the reality.
Maybe this is a case of needing to ‘hit rock bottom’ before we come to our senses. However, it hasn’t all been scary Star Wars-come-to-life demagoguery.
A counternarrative has also taken shape, making the case for immigrants. Ampflified by the shifting emphasis in policing from the border (faceless migrant wave) to policing in communities where it’s not only in your face, but we’re seeing faces we know being taken away.
We’re starting to realize there’s nuance to all of this. The situations for so many aren’t so black and white, and what’s illegal isn’t either…Despite what our border czar may say.
Hundreds at Alligator Alcatraz have no criminal charges, Miami Herald learns (Miami Herald)
For others, maybe its the economic hit. In construction alone, 20 percent of the labor force isn’t here legally. Even the threat of deportation is highly disruptive to keeping job sites staffed.
This is hardly enough to say that we’ve become enlightened here. The issue of how to regulate immigration remains and could easily swing back the other way. But it does give me a bit of hope, that even today people can still change their points of view for the better.
“Let these weaklings continue forward and do the Democrats work, don’t even think about talking of our incredible and unprecedented success, because I don’t want their support any more!” - Trump
Other Stuff:
Effectiveness of plastic bag bans and fees (The Carbon Almanac) TLRD: per latest studies, they work. Areas with plastic bag policies had:
25-47% decrease in plastic bags as a share collected items
30-37% purported decrease in the amount of entangled animals
Full plastic bag bans and fees were found to be the most effective.
“I think one of the things that makes capitalism not work as a system is, it was built on the idea of carelessness…you’re here to care, to care for your workers, your community, the planet, the other people that you do business with in your supply chain.”
Gaming
Gaming in their golden years: why millions of seniors are playing video games (The Guardian)
Over 57MM Americans 50+ game
Representing 28% of roughly 205 million total US gamers
Some who played games involving the exploration of 3D open worlds, like Super Mario 64 or The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild, showed improvement in grey matter (area associated with risk of Alzheimers).
Trend Watch: Big year for hole (Polygon) The rise of hole-digging games
An overlooked demographic has the highest suicide risk — and it’s been rising (StatNews) Men age 75 and older are the most at risk for suicide, more than 16 times the suicide rate for women in the same age group.
Cure for male pattern baldness given boost by sugar discovery (Univ of Sheffield)
UCLA Scientists Announce Big Breakthrough in Race to Cure Men's Baldness (Men’s Journal)
About 85% of men and 33% of women will suffer from hair loss at some point.
James Gunn’s ‘Superman’ Leads to More Than 500% Surge in Dog Adoption Interest, Thanks to Krypto (The Wrap) According to the dog training app Woofz, Google searches for “adopt a dog near me” jumped up 513% after the opening weekend of “Superman,” while the more specific “rescue dog adoption near me” rose by 163%.
The Gen Z…
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Also, Gen Z doesn't want to say 'hello' when answering the phone. (Business Insider)
AI Slop
Let’s delve into this…
ChatGPT Is Changing the Words We Use in Conversation (Scientific American) words frequently used by Chatgpt are becoming more common in spoken language now too
Is human language at an inflection point? (Embedded)
Was That Amazing Video in Your Feed Real or AI? Tech Platforms Are Struggling to Let You Know (WSJ)
An AI-generated band got 1m plays on Spotify (The Guardian)
When you replace a $50,000 employee with AI, you don't capture $50,000 in software revenue. You capture $5,000 if you're lucky.
The market isn't 100-200x bigger. It's maybe 10-20% of what the PowerPoints claim.
In the AI Age, Making Things Difficult Is Deliberate (Every) There's a difference between obstacles and the struggle that makes you better.
Resourceful:
The New Consumer’s Consumer Trends: 2025 Mid-Year Report explores survey results including how Gen Z really feels about AI, and What consumers will (and won’t) pay for to live longer.
‘76% of people feel better after taking even a short break… but no one ever takes them! Just ten minutes is all it takes to feel revitalised.’
"Where brands may have used 20-plus creators on a particular campaign, now on average [they are] using single digits for their influencer campaigns, just depending on the scale."
The economy is turbulent for influencers, too — here's how you might see it online (NPR)
nearly 76% of brands are dedicating advertising funds to online creators
That's actually a 10% decrease since 2024
Only 12% of those brands said they plan to allocate more than half their budgets to influencer marketing, a 12 percentage-point decline since last year.
When it comes to branding, ‘wholesome strangeness’ is the land of milk and honey. If you can make people feel good about discomfort, if you can make them feel like something weird is also natural, then you can make them change their beliefs and behaviors.
Tension Branding: How to Capture Our Dominant Mood (Concept Bureau)
Our new tension is about what to believe in when everyday reality doesn’t ladder up to some shared greater truth.
Aesthetics can’t touch it. Morality can’t resolve it. We need something that can hold the contradictions of this moment without rushing to fix them.
Pure Leaf Tea tricks New Yorkers into taking a break (Famous Camnpaigns) trading their phones in or a free ice tea
Resourceful
Gen Alpha unfiltered: A deep dive into the minds, values, and behaviors of the youngest generation (GWI)
The Effectiveness Equation (from Google) How to understand the full impact of your marketing strategy and prove it to the rest of the company
I don't accept the status quo. I do accept Visa, MasterCard, or American Express. - Stephen Colbert